Top Picks
I will post my top picks every day for you to compare our
picks against the actual outcomes.
Usually my picks will be for the home team to win because these are
easier to pick consistently (see: the home team advantage), however in
the rare case of a significantly disperate matchup, you may see an away
team pick.
Current Accuracy of Top Picks: 63.22% (452/715)
Today (2010-09-07):
| Day |
Visitor |
Home |
Home Team to Win? |
| Tue
|
KCR
|
MIN
|
YES
|
| Tue
|
BAL
|
NYY
|
YES
|
| Tue
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
YES
|
| Tue
|
FLA
|
PHI
|
YES
|
|
Previous 10 Picks:
Click on the Top of a Column to Sort the Table--IE Only
| Date |
Day |
Visitor |
Home |
Home Team Won? |
| 20100906
|
Mon
|
KCR
|
MIN
|
TRUE
|
| 20100906
|
Mon
|
FLA
|
PHI
|
FALSE
|
| 20100906
|
Mon
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
TRUE
|
| 20100906
|
Mon
|
BAL
|
NYY
|
FALSE
|
| 20100905
|
Sun
|
MIL
|
PHI
|
FALSE
|
| 20100905
|
Sun
|
TEX
|
MIN
|
TRUE
|
| 20100905
|
Sun
|
TOR
|
NYY
|
FALSE
|
| 20100904
|
Sat
|
MIL
|
PHI
|
TRUE
|
| 20100904
|
Sat
|
LAA
|
OAK
|
TRUE
|
| 20100904
|
Sat
|
CHW
|
BOS
|
FALSE
|
|
To download
all past predictions
click
here.
Details:
When analyzing the potential for a team to win in baseball, several
noticable factors are immediately discernable.
On average, the Home Team will win 54% of the time in any given season.
Scholars debate the exact nature of this advantage, however it holds
constant across teams, ballparks, and seasons. The net mean score for
baseball games played between 2000 and 2009 is around +0.16.
Difficulty of Score
Prediction: One of the main problems with forecasting
outcomes in baseball games is analyzing the net score. Many of the
variables which one can obtain before the game occurs, while good
indicators of past performance, serve as poor indicators of future
performance. A large part of this stems from the spread of net baseball
scores being very wide. Around 50% of all games have a net score
between -3 and +3, however the remaining 50% on the tails of the
distribution can reach as high as +/- 20 points. Because of this, it is
easier to predict whether the net score will be greater than zero.
More
about Me
- My statistical system takes advantage of
recent advances in computing power and advanced statistical methods
developed by mathematicians in order to provide accuracy and
consistency in picking the outcomes of MLB games with greater accuracy
than previously possible.
How It Works:
- While the details of our methods must remain prevent people
from stealing our advancements, below are some details to
give you a general idea of the improvements we've made upon existing
methods, and why our models is so successful.
- Our methods involve a combination of data mining,
machine
learning, and association
rule learning techniques.
- Our secret formula uses a series of
multiple moving averages taking into account different periods
of time to better discern trends in team playing, these results are
then combined with stochastic measures of team performance in order to
account for streaks and hot periods in playing.
Contact Us
Phone: 951-833-8033
E-Mail:
Adam@adamscorner.com
